Scenario Planning | Foresight Cards workshops

Determine market drivers, innovation opportunities and key-uncertainties

Players 2 to 8 Duration 30 – 90 minutes Level 3/5

Create an impact diagram with sections “Confirmation”, “Innovation” and “Scenarios” on a large piece of paper.
Make teams of two or three people.
Shuffle the cards among the teams evenly. You might make a pre-selection if short on time.
Each team positions their cards in the appropriate sections on the impact diagram.
As a team, discuss which pattern of change applies to each card. Write them down and place them next to the cards, giving a complete overview of the current situation.
Once all cards are positioned, group them into categories. Assign a new pattern of change to each category based on its cards. The category plus its main pattern of change is a driving force.
By now you should have identified the market drivers, innovation opportunities and key-uncertainties.
As a whole group, discuss how these drivers influence your business. Three suggested discussion points:
- Confirmation: how do these drivers correspond with the current market? Is your company benefiting?
- Innovation: which business opportunities arise? Is your company addressing them?
- Scenarios: which future scenarios can you derive? Is your company aware of them?

During step 4: after positioning the STEEP cards, add forces from the meso (transactional) environment.

Players 2 to 8 Duration 30 – 90 minutes Level 4/5

Included in the box, also available in Dutch, German and Spanish.

Select the cards that are relevant to the business case.
Shuffle the cards and deal them among the players.
In turns, a player places a card on the impact diagram, names the pattern of change and explains why they put the card there.
After each turn, check whether cards need to be re-positioned as a result of the discussion.
When all cards have been played, identify together the key-uncertainties used to create future scenarios.

After positioning the STEEP cards, add additional market forces of your own choice that are relevant to the market.